Germany Warns of Growing Risk of Conflict With Russia

BND chief Martin Jaeger warned of a Russian “shadow war” but said a full attack on NATO remains unlikely.

Germany’s foreign intelligence chief has warned that the country faces a heightened risk of violent conflict with Russia as Moscow allegedly intensifies what Berlin describes as a “shadow war” against European democracies. Martin Jaeger, head of the BND, said Russian operations were testing Germany’s resolve through activities including cyber operations and suspected drone attacks. He nevertheless indicated that a large-scale Russian assault on NATO remained unlikely.

The warning reflects a major shift in European security thinking. Germany spent decades building its post-Cold War foreign policy around economic engagement and relatively restrained military spending. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed that calculation dramatically, leading Berlin to increase defence spending and strengthen cooperation with NATO allies. The latest intelligence assessment suggests German policymakers now view Russia as a long-term strategic threat rather than simply a regional military problem.

The concern is not necessarily that Russian tanks will cross into Germany. Instead, officials are worried about cyberattacks, sabotage, intelligence operations and pressure against infrastructure or NATO’s eastern flank. Such activities can create instability without immediately triggering a conventional war. Germany is therefore considering changes to the powers of its intelligence services, potentially expanding their ability to detect and disrupt hostile operations. The debate reflects the difficult balance between national security and civil liberties in a country whose post-war institutions were deliberately designed to prevent excessive state surveillance.