India Could Replace China in Asian Fuel Markets

With China pausing fuel exports, India’s 5.6 million-barrel-a-day refining system could fill the regional gap.

India is emerging as a potential major beneficiary of China’s decision to suspend fuel exports in October, as international energy markets look for alternative suppliers. India has the world’s fourth-largest refining system, with 23 refineries capable of processing approximately 5.6 million barrels of crude oil per day. Trade data show that Indian fuel exports were already larger than China’s in 2025, with India shipping roughly 47 million metric tonnes of fuel compared with China’s 25.4 million tonnes.

The opportunity comes at a complicated time. Indian fuel exports declined by around 23% during the first nine months of 2026 because of geopolitical disruptions connected to the Iran conflict and higher domestic export duties. However, crude imports from the Middle East have begun recovering, while India has cut fuel-export taxes twice. Middle Eastern oil deliveries to India reached more than 11.3 million tonnes in September, the highest monthly level since February. That combination could allow Indian refiners to increase exports to markets that have lost access to Chinese fuel.

The development could strengthen India’s position as an important energy supplier across Asia. Countries such as Singapore, Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines could become more important destinations as refiners redirect cargoes away from markets affected by geopolitical disruptions. However, India’s ability to take advantage of the opportunity depends on crude availability, refinery utilisation, domestic fuel demand and government export policy. There is also a strategic dimension: the more important India becomes as a regional fuel supplier, the more exposed its refining sector becomes to geopolitical disruptions affecting crude imports and shipping routes. Still, the situation demonstrates the scale of India’s refining capacity and its potential role in stabilising Asian energy markets when another major exporter steps back.