Northeast Monsoon To Bring Heavy Rain Across South India

The India Meteorological Department says the northeast monsoon will soon bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to southern states as the summer monsoon finally leaves.

On Tuesday, 13 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon is finally leaving. The IMD is the government agency that tracks weather across the country. For months, these summer rains have covered India. They are now moving out of eastern and southern regions. Currently, the withdrawal line passes through Kolkata and other towns like Dhubri, Angul, Khammam, and Honavar. This line shows the boundary where the monsoon has not yet fully left. As the summer rains end, the northeast monsoon is expected to begin over the southern peninsula within the next two days. This change in seasons brings a new forecast of heavy rain for many southern states. Between 14 and 19 October, places like Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala should prepare for a wet spell. The weather office also warned of a low-pressure area forming over the southeast Bay of Bengal. A low-pressure area is a system of clouds and winds that often brings rain. While the south prepares for rain, parts of North India like Punjab and Delhi may see hailstorms on 14 and 15 October. This is a concern for farmers harvesting kharif crops (crops grown during the summer monsoon).

Why it matters

The northeast monsoon is a lifeline for millions of people in southern India. Most of India relies on summer rains. However, states like Tamil Nadu get nearly 48 per cent of their yearly water from the northeast monsoon. The southern peninsula as a whole gets about 30 per cent of its rain during this time. This water is vital for filling up reservoirs and local irrigation tanks. Reservoirs are large artificial lakes used to store water for the public. Farmers depend on this moisture to grow the rabi crop, which is the winter harvest. However, this year's weather brings both hope and worry. The Reserve Bank of India (the central bank that manages the country's money) recently noted that the summer monsoon was deficient this year. This lack of rain has already caused food prices to rise. This makes it harder for families to afford basic groceries. While the new rains are needed, the IMD predicts that most of the southern region might still receive below-normal rainfall this season. Only parts of Tamil Nadu and the Kerala hills are expected to see normal or high rain. For ordinary citizens, these patterns determine home safety and food costs.

What to expect

• Heavy rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala between 14 and 19 October.

• Coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Karnataka will see rain from 15 to 18 October, while Telangana expects rain on 17 October.

• Strong winds and thunderstorms with speeds of up to 60 kilometres per hour may hit several southern states.

• People in low-lying areas should be careful of waterlogging, traffic delays, and possible landslides in hilly regions.

• Farmers in Punjab, Haryana, and Jammu and Kashmir face risks to their crops due to potential hailstorms and heavy rain.

What's next

In the coming days, the low-pressure area (a system of clouds and winds that often brings rain) over the Bay of Bengal will be closely watched by weather scientists. If it grows stronger, it could change the intensity of the rains across the coast. Families in the south must prepare for possible disruptions to daily life. Flooded streets and power outages are a major concern. Meanwhile, the government will need to monitor how the rain affects the winter planting season. A key question remains: will these rains be enough to make up for the dry summer and help lower food prices? If the rainfall stays below normal as predicted, the pressure on farmers and families will continue. The next few weeks will show if the reservoirs can fill up enough. This is needed to secure the country’s food supply for the months ahead.