Beyond El Niño: The bigger risks facing Indian agriculture

After a listless June, agricultural sowing picked up well in July, though it's still lower than last year. The cloud of El Niño apart, Indian agriculture also has to deal with the debilitating effects of other structural problems.

With 2026 declared an El Niño year, all eyes are on the progress of the monsoon across the Indian subcontinent. June ended with rainfall about 40% below the long-term average. July, the most crucial month for kharif sowing, brought a sharp improvement, narrowing the deficit to 16%.

Although El Niño years have often coincided with lower output of key crops, other atmospheric factors also influence agricultural outcomes. More importantly, over-indexing on El Niño risks overlooking longer-term structural challenges facing Indian agriculture, including climate change, rising pest resistance and gradual soil degradation.

Indian agriculture has two cropping seasons: kharif and rabi. The kharif season runs from June to October and depends heavily on monsoon rainfall for irrigation. Most kharif sowing takes place during June and July.

As on 31 July, the latest government data available, the area sown by farmers for the 2026 kharif season was about 2.9% less than in the 2025 kharif season, with coarse cereals and pulses registering the largest drops.

This is a sharp improvement from early July when the year-on-year drop was about 20%. Thus, the catching up of sowing progress augurs well for kharif prospects, as July is the key month for sowing. Although the current status of sowing is markedly better at an all-India level, the overall number conceals wide regional variations.

Among larger states, for instance, Karnataka has sown 28% less area than it did in 2025 and Odisha about 16%. Other large states with weak sowing strength are Tamil Nadu (-23%) and Maharashtra (-8%). Large states doing well are led by Bihar (up 10%), Kerala (up 20%) and Jharkhand (up 28%).

The latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is that the monsoon this year will be 10% below its long-term average. The major reason is the El Niño phenomenon, with the global consensus being that El Niño conditions in the Pacific will last well into next year.

Arecent report by CareEdge Ratings outlines the impact an El Niño year has on the monsoon and, equally importantly, on agricultural and GDP growth.

Figures on the record in this material: 2026; 40%; 16%; 31; 2.9%; 2025; 20%; 28%; 23%; 8%.

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